What an equity curve simulator can—and cannot—tell you
An equity curve is the running value of a strategy after each trade. The simulator applies your assumptions to a repeatable pseudo-random sequence so you can see how order affects the path. It is useful for sizing conversations and reviewing whether a losing streak would make you abandon a sound process.
It is not a backtest. There are no historical prices, entries, market regimes, commissions, or execution model. The output is a scenario, not a forecast or a promise of returns. Use it to stress-test a plan, then validate that plan with your own documented trades.
Read expectancy before admiring the curve
Expectancy in R = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). A curve that finishes higher with negative expectancy is an artifact of the sample sequence. Positive expectancy does not remove risk: a 45% win rate with 2R winners and 1R losers can be sound, yet still experience long losing runs.
Turn the scenario into a review habit
Run conservative, base, and optimistic assumptions. Record the maximum drawdown you could tolerate financially and psychologically. Then compare that threshold with Edgelog analytics—your real win rate, profit factor, drawdown and equity curve—after a meaningful sample. If the live path falls outside the scenario, investigate execution and process before changing the strategy.
All inputs stay in your browser. This educational calculator is not financial advice and does not predict market returns.