How win rate is calculated
Win rate = winning trades ÷ total trades × 100. Twenty-two winners out of forty trades is a 55% win rate. Count breakeven trades in the total but in neither bucket, and use net results after fees — a scratch that lost $2 to commission is a loss.
Why win rate alone is a trap
A 70% win rate loses money if the winners average $50 and the losers average $200. A 35% win rate prints money if winners run 3R. Win rate is the most quoted statistic in trading precisely because it is the most emotionally satisfying — nobody brags about expectancy. The pairing that decides profitability is win rate × payoff: expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). If that number is positive after costs, you have an edge; if not, no win rate will save the system.
What a "good" win rate looks like by style
- Trend-following and breakout systems — often 30–45%, profitable through large winners
- Mean-reversion and range strategies — often 55–70%, with tighter targets
- Scalping — can run 70%+ but lives or dies on cost control and the occasional outsized loss
Comparing your win rate against a different style's benchmark is meaningless. Compare it against your own history, per setup — which requires keeping one.
Get these numbers computed automatically
Win rate, average win/loss, expectancy, and profit factor per setup, session, and symbol — Edgelog computes all of it from your synced MT4/MT5 or Binance/Bybit history, free with unlimited trades. When the numbers update themselves after every trade, the weekly review stops being arithmetic and starts being analysis. See how in the forex journal guide.